Report on a Possible Strike against Iran
and Ways to Prepare for the Aftermath
I'm forwarding the message below (following my own message), not because I know it's true, but because I fear it might be.
It comes on the heels of the Seymour Hersh article in 5 March The New Yorker, in which his highly credible, insider information said that "the current (Pentagon) contingency plans allow for an attack order (on Iran) this spring." Hersh went on to write that the Pentagon is continuing intensive planning for a possible bombing attack on Iran....(and that) a special planning group has been established in the offices of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, charged with creating a contingency bombing plan for Iran that can be implemented, upon orders from the President, within twenty-four hours....In the past month...the Iran planning group has been handed a new assignment: to identify targets in Iran that may be involved in supplying or aiding militants in Iraq (This in addition to the previous focus on the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities, and possible regime change.) This fits in with Hersh's information that "The White House goal is to build a case that Iranians have been fomenting the insurgency and they've been doing it all along--that Iran is, in act, supporting the killing of Americans." According to Hersh's high-ranking informants, this would deflect criticism of the bleak situation in Iraq from the Administration's own failures of planning and execution, and place the blame, instead, on "Iran's interference." Already, Hersh reported, there are "secret operations in Lebanon (that) have been accompanied by clandestine operations targeting Iran." Additionally, there are "two carrier strike groups--the Eisenhower and Stennis--now in the Arabian Sea."
(In light of all of this, one has to wonder what role the imprisonment of British sailors by the Iranians last week will play in all of this: as an excuse to bomb? as hostages against bombing, since obviously the Iranians can plainly see what is happening in their waters, and are perfectly aware of the clandestine operations?)
If this attack does take place, however, certainly it's reasonable to expect Iran to retaliate, especially by trying to do serious damage to our oil lifeline. One very possible scenario includes the serious disruption of oil supplies by blowing up ships in the narrow Strait of Hormuz where much of the Middle East petroleum moves. (Again, Hersh writes that "war games have shown that the (US) carriers could be vulnerable to swarming tactics involving large numbers of small boats, a technique that the Iranians have practiced in the past; carriers have limited maneuverability in the Strait of Hormuz.")
If this were to happen, the price of oil could jump to $100--even $150--a barrel, wreaking major havoc in all areas--food, financial, energy, transporation, etc.--of our lives because of our absolute dependence on petroleum for the daily functioning of our society and economy. At the risk of sounding hysterical or unduly alarmist, this would result in dire consequences for all us, ones that would be sudden, sweeping, and potentially catastrophic.
Hence, while I certainly hope that this scenario does not play out, I also hold firmly to the post-Katrina belief that we are on our own, that citizens must take responsibility for their well-being, and that we are best advised to prepare for the worst, while praying for the best. The following is a list of suggestions I would make based on what Sherry and I have been doing over the past 2 years:
FOOD: Since stores typically don’t carry more than a few days worth of food, I suggest that people stock up for at least one month’s (preferably two) supply of basic items (canned and dry food).
WATER: Depending on whether potable water would be threatened in an emergency such as this, it is best to lay in a supply of this, as well.
PETS/LIVESTOCK: Stock up for them as you would for yourselves.
GASOLINE: Purchase and fill several 5 gal. gas containers (gas should be used within 4-6 months); don’t let your car get below a half-empty tank.
HEATING/COOKING FUEL: Make sure your fuel company visits you over the next couple of weeks.
CASH: Don’t leave all of your money in banks. They (and ATMs) may not be accessible if a financial crises ensues. Have a reasonable amount on hand "under the mattress."
PRESCRIPTIONS: Consult with your pharmacist or doctor about what can be done, since stocking up is not something the law allows in many cases.
COLLABORATE: Talk with neighbors, friends, and relatives; plan together how you can help each other—and especially those who are older or infirm, and may be less able to help themselves--in the event of such an emergency.
Operation Bite: April 6 Sneak Attack by US Forces Against Iran Planned Russian Military Sources Warn
By Webster G. Tarpley | tarpley.net
2007 03 26
General Ivashov Calls for Emergency Session of UN Security Council to Ward Off Looming US Aggression
The long awaited US military attack on Iran is now on track for the first week of April, specifically for 4 AM on April 6, the Good Friday opening of Easter weekend, writes the well-known Russian journalist Andrei Uglanov in the Moscow weekly “Argumenty Nedeli.” Uglanov cites Russian military experts close to the Russian General Staff for his account.
The attack is slated to last for twelve hours, according to Uglanov, lasting from 4 AM until 4 PM local time. Friday is a holiday in Iran. In the course of the attack, code named Operation Bite, about 20 targets are marked for bombing; the list includes uranium enrichment facilities, research centers, and laboratories.
The first reactor at the Bushehr nuclear plant, where Russian engineers are working, is supposed to be spared from destruction. The US attack plan reportedly calls for the Iranian air defense system to be degraded, for numerous Iranian warships to be sunk in the Persian Gulf, and the for the most important headquarters of the Iranian armed forces to be wiped out.
The attacks will be mounted from a number of bases, including the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Diego Garcia is currently home to B-52 bombers equipped with standoff missiles. Also participating in the air strikes will be US naval aviation from aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf, as well as from those of the Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean. Additional cruise missiles will be fired from submarines in the Indian Ocean and off the coast of the Arabian peninsula. The goal is allegedly to set back Iran’s nuclear program by several years, writes Uglanov, whose article was re-issued by RIA-Novosti in various languages, but apparently not English, several days ago. The story is the top item on numerous Italian and German blogs, but so far appears to have been ignored by US websites.
Observers comment that this dispatch represents a high-level orchestrated leak from the Kremlin, in effect a war warning, which draws on the formidable resources of the Russian intelligence services, and which deserves to be taken with the utmost seriousness by pro-peace forces around the world.
Asked by RIA-Novosti to comment on the Uglanov report, retired Colonel General Leonid Ivashov confirmed its essential features in a March 21 interview: “I have no doubt that there will be an operation, or more precisely a violent action against Iran.” Ivashov, who has reportedly served at various times as an informal advisor to Putin, is currently the Vice President of the Moscow Academy for Geopolitical Sciences.
Ivashov attributed decisive importance to the decision of the Democratic leadership of the US House of Representatives to remove language from the just-passed Iraq supplemental military appropriations bill which would have demanded that Bush come to Congress before launching an attack on Iran. Ivashov pointed out that the language was eliminated under pressure from AIPAC, the lobbing group representing the Israeli extreme right, and of Israeli Foreign Minister Tsipi Livni.
“We have drawn the unmistakable conclusion that this operation will take place,” said Ivashov. In his opinion, the US planning does not include a land operation: “ Most probably there will be no ground attack, but rather massive air attacks with the goal of annihilating Iran’s capacity for military resistance, the centers of administration, the key economic assets, and quite possibly the Iranian political leadership, or at least part of it,” he continued.
Ivashov noted that it was not to be excluded that the Pentagon would use smaller tactical nuclear weapons against targets of the Iranian nuclear industry. These attacks could paralyze everyday life, create panic in the population, and generally produce an atmosphere of chaos and uncertainty all over Iran, Ivashov told RIA-Novosti. “This will unleash a struggle for power inside Iran, and then there will be a peace delegation sent in to install a pro-American government in Teheran,” Ivashov continued. One of the US goals was, in his estimation, to burnish the image of the current Republican administration, who would now be able to boast that they had wiped out the Iranian nuclear program.
Among the other outcomes, General Ivashov pointed to a partition of Iran along the same lines as Iraq, and a subsequent carving up of the Near and Middle East into smaller regions. “This concept worked well for them in the Balkans and will now be applied to the greater Middle East,” he commented.
“Moscow must exert Russia’s influence by demanding an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council to deal with the current preparations for an illegal use of force against Iran and the destruction of the basis of the United Nations Charter,” said General Ivashov. “In this context Russia could cooperate with China, France and the non-permanent members of the Security Council. We need this kind of preventive action to ward off the use of force,” he concluded.